Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Trade Bait & Hit Locator - Topps Update Break Analysis

My goal in life is to destroy the eBay'ers who hawk 'Hot Packs'. I am not morally opposed to their gig, but I am opposed to how shittily they do their job. If those jabroneys listed specific pack weights, box order, etc.,  in their item description they could have a much stronger product because the optimum market requires perfect information.

From two jumbo boxes I was able to surmise to pretty general findings that probably hold true across most boxes. My self-confidence boosts every time my confidence in Topps diminishes.

Placement of SPs and Hits:
Both SPs, Votto and Robinson Cano, were pulled in the second pack of each box, and the cards were in spots #31 and #32, respectively, in each pack (second pack is the pack on the right on the top layer).

Both All-Star Game Jersey Cards, Chipper Jones and Derek Jeter, were in the seventh pack in each box (seventh pack is fourth pack down on the right).

The manu-relics, the Henderson HOF Plaque and the Mays ROY ring were both in the second layer of the box.

Crappy Card Sequencing:
I pulled the following two sequences four times each during the break:

  • US229
  • US109
  • US297
  • US264

  • US301
  • US168 (Yu Darvish!)
  • US312

Horrid Insertion Rates:
I also pulled 25 Golden Giveaway Code cards from the boxes, even though they were suppose to be only one per pack.

And here's a listing of the other pulls:

Frank Wren (Atlanta Braves GM)
Yoenis Cespedes Golden Debut
Mark Hamburger Golden Debut

Black Bordered:
Randy Choate #15/61
Craig Breslow #59/61

Presidential Predictor:
Barack Obama PPO-25 (Missouri) - FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 5% chance of winning Missouri.

Gold-Bordered Serial Numbered Mega Insert Set:
Approximately one metric crap-ton, at least I pulled a Jeter

In sum, I was very surprised/disappointed at the consistency of the pulls, specifically location within the box, and the quadruplicate sequencing base card pulls.

That's about it for now. Drop me a note if you want any to trade/buy any of the above, they'll be slapped up on the 'Bay in the next few days.

1 comment:

  1. Hi there. If you think you always get the Murphy Law pack try this:

    I got this box for 2009 Topps UH and it was like the 3rd/4th box I got of that and never had a problem. Until this time. If there is a price for unlucky I think I can get it.

    Like your topics. Refreshing from other sports cards.